Second Quarter 2011
Real Estate Report Card
It’s that time again as we review our real estate report card by way of our 2011 Second Quarter Statistics. How did our enchanting city do? Our real estate road to recovery appears to be a long and winding road.
The greatest news we have to focus on is the decline in new listings, down 22% from last quarter. That means the total month’s supply of homes for sale has decreased from 19 months to 15. Other good news, closed sales were up from last quarter and also from same time last year. Remember, last year the market was inspired by the Home Buyer Tax Credit. This year ready buyers and outstanding prices were the impetus to beat last year’s figures.
Certain segments of the market faired much better than others. The city limits Northeast saw a positive change in median sales price to $545,000 and a 50% increase in closed sales to 72 homes sold Year to Date (YTD). But, Days on Market (DOM) has increased to 289 and there was an overall decline in listing price received to 84%. The Tesuque area saw a large reduction in new listings, down 37%, to 63 homes and but the median sales price fell to $712,500 from $792,500.
Across St. Francis Drive, the city limits Northwest is still struggling. Closed sales are down 35 % and DOM has increased 65% to 203 days. Prices have fallen hard here; the median price is now $227,500. Down Cerrillos Road, the Southwest city limits is also very soft. New listings did decrease over 20%, but the median sales price here is now $209,000. The good news is that Santa Fe’s housing affordability index has increased to a 97. This means that the median household income is 97% of what is necessary to qualify for the median priced home. Santa Fe saw a low affordability index of 55 in the spring of 2007.
The city limits Southeast saw a big decrease in its median sales price, from $550,000 for 2010 to $415,000 for 2011. But, DOM has also decreased to 208 days while the percent of listing price the seller receives has gone up to 91%. That suggest sellers are more aggressive in this area and they need to be because closed sales have also dropped over 20% to 37 sold YTD.
The Eldorado market has cooled a bit from the same quarter 2010 with closed sales down almost 10% to 43 sold homes YTD. The median sales price is also down somewhat to $319,000 and inventory here has actually grown a bit to 11 months. The Highway 285 area has seen a positive change in inventory with 72 homes for sale and a small increase in closed sales for the last quarter but overall the area is still falling, the median price now $429, 750 from $445,000 last year.
Las Campanas saw a huge increase in sales, up over 100% from the same quarter last year to a total of 27 sales YTD. A reduction in new inventory plus a small decline in selling price has given this area a boost. The Northwest quadrant saw a big decrease in new listings, down 37% to 123 homes for sale. The month’s supply here has been almost cut in half and the median price has increased over 20% to $673,000.
Airport Road is still suffering with a decrease in selling price, down to $190,000 and an increase in DOM to 156. Rancho Viejo and surrounds saw an increase in selling price to $310,000 but a reduction in closed sales. Inventory here hovers around a one year’s supply. Highway 14 and La Cienega saw a positive increase in median sales price up to $285,000 but a small decrease in inventory. Glorieta and Pecos saw a huge decline in median sales price, now down to $205,000.
Taking the good news with the bad, our market is surviving. Thriving here, suffering there, all part of the process on our long and winding road to recovery.
Tao Jones
THE TAO JONES: Proverbs for Real Estate Investors
Greater than the failure of the banks and real estate market has been the catastrophic loss of faith in ourselves as a society that we are still capable of making the world a better place. Back in the 1990’s it seemed like everyone was a financial genius who knew ways for you to make money in your sleep. Now it’s easier to find someone who will scare you into the dark ages than to find good advice on investing in real estate. When it comes to succeeding at anything in life having guiding principles will improve your chances and investing in real estate is no exception. Here are a few proverbs to invest in.
“Vision without action is a daydream. Action without vision is a nightmare.” Get your sight on a goal and get going. Quick and easy short-term gains were the lure of the stock market not the real estate market. In real estate, the best plan is to earn your wealth over time, the old fashion way. The easiest expectations to manage are realistic ones so lay out your financial goals and be prepared to do the work it takes to earn it.
Unless you happen to know the winning numbers of next week’s lottery, there is no reason to keep secrets. Many buyers do not disclose their motives or ideas to real estate brokers for fear that someone else will scoop their idea and make all the money. They often want to get the information they think they need and disclose very little. These buyers are taking a huge risk and often they are so focused on a short-term gain that they end up with a long-term mess.
“None of us is as smart as all of us.” Create a team of professionals to help you execute your plan. Yes, the term professional implies that these people will be paid for their work and if you’re thinking that your profit margin is coming from doing the work of these experts, don’t fool yourself. Your investment team should consist of a real estate broker that you like and trust. A local broker with years of experience can use their knowledge to find you properties that can earn cash flow and develop equity. Next, you will need a contractor who gets along not only with you, but your broker, too. Contractors work well with investors; their knowledge and experience can trouble shoot problems that often are the difference between profit and loss. If your contractor knows that you will be a return client, they often go out of their way to give you the best of their abilities. Finally, get a property management company that understands your goals. Avoid leasing your own properties unless you have professional experience. Property management is not easy and can be contentious and litigious. Property managers know the laws and practices that will get your properties rented and keep them rented.
“Fall seven times, get up eight.” As evidenced by the remaining investors, brokers, and contractors, the key to survival and success is to get back up and keep fighting. Let’s face it, real estate investing is tough. But if you are looking for the potential to earn some money and develop long-term wealth, there are opportunities for you. Never lose sight that the journey is the reward and is best shared with others.
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